The Northern Lights dazzled across much of the UK last weekend, but will they continue to shine for the SNP this week in the city synonymous with the dazzling light show? As party conference season winds down for another year, up last is its most northern stop, Aberdeen, for the SNP. The party faithful are set to descend on the P&J Live for a three-day affair from Thursday. The mood should be optimistic as they have, after all, just won a fifth successive term in government. But are there a few clouds on the nationalist horizon?
If you’re lucky enough to be making your way to a venue that is just about in Aberdeen, there are a few things to consider. Most importantly, be prepared for the journey to the venue. Is it really in Aberdeen? Be prepared to hear that a fair bit.
Here are a few other things we think will be high on the agenda.
Public Service Reform and a slimmed down top team
John Swinney’s slightly smaller Cabinet was aimed at sending a clear signal that this would be a Government in delivery mode; especially with Ivan McKee in charge of Public Service Reform. That particular topic has proved somewhat problematic in recent months, especially when signalling a reduction in staff numbers, which is why the unions have been watching outputs closely. This is unlikely to be too difficult during conference, but the party needs PSR to succeed to deliver the money needed for other priorities.
The Programme for Government laid out some pretty big ambitions and some tensions, including the slashing of NHS boards, local government reform and the merger of Scotland’s environmental public bodies, all of which could surface at conference.
Watch for:the tone of the Public Service Reform discussions to see if the party is in the same place as the Government.
What is the state of independence?
Swinney’s meeting in Cardiff last month with fellow pro-independence devolved government leaders from Wales and Northern Ireland to sign a memorandum asserting the right to self-determination, declared that Westminster’s time was coming to an end.
Assertion is one thing, delivering another. Prime Minister Andy Burnham was obviously unimpressed at being put on notice and has since rebuked Swinney’s claim that he would be the ‘last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom’ in an emotional section of his Labour Party conference speech.
Swinney should use his keynote address to further assert the cause for independence. Some within the party reportedly want the next Westminster election to be a de-facto referendum on independence (again) and while Swinney is less likely to focus on that, he needs to show the path to some sort of progress.
Watch for: the mood in the hall. Some within the party are anxious that more needs done to establish concrete plans on the back of the recent declaration. Swinney’s speech will undoubtedly be well received but will it hit the right note to appease those hungry for action?
The battle for the North Sea
Aberdeen is perhaps as good a backdrop as any for discussions on Scotland’s energy future, but also a stark reminder of how electorally salient the issue has become.
In June, the SNP lost the Aberdeen South Westminster seat to the Conservatives by over 6,000 votes in a campaign that effectively became a referendum on each party’s approach to energy. Stephen Flynn, who had vacated the seat for Holyrood, said at the time that the loss to the heavily pro-oil and gas platform should be reflected on “quite heavily by some”. Many delegates will have that in mind. With the cost of living still front and centre for many voters, matching the Government’s Net Zero ambition with the country’s energy needs is the big challenge.
Watch for:whether the SNP can hold a unified front on such a divisive issue, or whether the cracks widen as workers and businesses ask what comes next for Scotland.
The shadow of Peter Murrell…
This is the first conference since ex-CEO Peter Murrell was jailed for embezzling more than £400,000 from the party. Don’t expect too much if anything on the subject, as the leadership will be keen to treat the matter as closed.
A conference motion would give members a new, confidential way to flag and report misconduct of those within the party, including office bearers. Those hoping to leave the Murrell affair behind will see this as a welcome move.
Watch for:any mentions or allusions to the scandal. Although unlikely, senior party members’ speeches will be read by opponents as much for what they leave unsaid.
A cautious look over their shoulders?
While the SNP won convincingly against their Holyrood peers, it’ll be interesting to see who bears the brunt of the party’s punches; though don’t expect it to be made through the medium of a tapestry.
Labour, as the UK Government, will receive the usual Westminster treatment, alongside demands that Burnham’s commitment to devolution includes meaningful further powers for Scotland. New Scottish Labour leader Michael Marra is softly changing the party’s tactics at Holyrood, and there may be some focus on whether that could cause some issues for the Government if UK Labour’s polling under Burnham remains buoyant.
Reform UK will definitely get it in the neck. Swinney has made it clear that he has no interest in engaging with them. Interestingly, one submitted motion urges the party to engage with public concerns on immigration, so to not leave the debate to those who exploit it.
Watch for:the direction of political attacks. Whoever receives the most attention might just be the one who worries the party the most.
The bottom line
The SNP are in a very comfortable position by modern political standards, and their delegates have every right to be upbeat. Don’t expect the weekend to be filled with Swinney-mania though, and it’s worth keeping an eye out for those with their eyes on the crown when it becomes available at some point in the future. Challenges on the horizon, coupled with what seems to be a more popular occupant of Number 10, may make for a surprisingly nervous feeling in the Aberdeen air.
