In the early hours of a May morning, a by-election result leaves Keir Starmer thinking long and hard about why voters have given Labour such a hard time. Losing a safe Labour seat is never a good look but at a time when he needs some positive voter affirmation, the Labour leader has to come up with an explanation why his party is performing so badly. He says he’s listening but is sticking to his plan which he believes will come good.
But it’s not Runcorn and Helsby in 2025 I’m talking about here. This is Hartlepool in 2021.
Back then, the Conservatives’ won over 50% of the vote in a constituency that had been firmly in Labour hands since being created in 1974. Starmer had been Labour leader for a year. This was an enormous setback and a boost for then Tory PM Boris Johnson who revelled in the win. Some in Starmer’s party questioned whether he could turn his party’s fortunes around.
Politics is brutal. Johnson is long gone; Hartlepool is safely back in the hands of what is now a Labour government led by Prime Minister Starmer and the Tories seem to be a spent force.
The rise of Reform
Last night Labour lost Runcorn by six votes to Reform. There is no doubt the circumstances surrounding this vote had an impact but like Hartlepool in 2021, is it a flash in the pan or a sign of something more fundamental?
Runcorn, and the English local elections, were the first real test of the electorate since last year’s General Election which Labour won with a thumping landslide. A poorly received Budget, a stuttering economy and some divisive policy decisions have undoubtedly damaged Labour, but it was the Tories who lost most in the locals.
The Conservatives are still trying to rebuild but what these votes have shown is that Reform’s polling figures were spot on and despite having just six MPs, they are now a genuine threat to both the Tories and Labour.
Reform also took control of a number of councils and won the Mayoralty in Lincoln. That is a major breakthrough but will also provide its first real test – they will now be in a position of governing as opposed to just protesting.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens did ok which suggests it’s the main parties who are being punished here. The next big electoral test for all parties, including an important one for Reform, will come with Scottish Parliament by-election in Hamilton next month which should provide some pointers towards what might happen in the Holyrood elections in June 2026.
Anyone else feeling déjà vu?
Back in 2021, at the same time as the Hartlepool by election, Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP romped to victory in Holyrood winning 64 seats and almost 48% of the vote, more than twice as much as her nearest challenger.
Like Johnson, within a couple of years Sturgeon had gone and Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour were on the rise, but the SNP is back and polling high enough to suggest John Swinney will still be First Minister after next year’s vote.
Hamilton will give an indication if that’s likely. Scottish Labour, in spite of doing well in Scotland in the UK General Election last year needs something spectacular to take the seat from the SNP. Sarwar has tried distancing himself from some of UK Labour’s unpopular policies, but it hasn’t seemed to help. Latest polling suggests they’ll be 2nd biggest party in 2026 but a very, very long way away from the SNP.
Sarwar must be pulling his hair out wondering what he can do to turn it around. He’s likeable and popular but the anchor attaching him to the UK part seems to be dragging him down and his pal in No10 doesn’t seem inclined to do much to help. See the approach to Sheffield steel and Grangemouth oil for details.
One word of caution. Elections a year after a General Election aren’t the best yardstick as the results of 2021 showed. Labour still has time to turn things round and if the economy picks up, people may be less critical and willing to give them a chance.
But if feels like there seems to be a genuine shift this time. Reform is clearly here to stay but the test will be whether they can build support outside certain parts of England. If they can, then this election may be the moment that the UK political landscape changed and, possibly, with it the UK as an entity.
Image: @ReformPartyUK
