The Godfather 2 is one of those rare cinematic beasts – a sequel that’s perceived as better than the original. It was the first sequel to win Best Picture at the Oscars and as only one other follow up has won cinema’s top prize*, it’s obviously very hard to top an original.
Whether Donald Trump will be thinking about that as he takes his place in the White House for a second term is unknown (though he certainly knows a thing or two about sequels having played a cameo in the Home Alone 2).
It was his public screen image, also forged through things like The Apprentice, that helped create an aura around him and propelled him to the Presidency in 2016. Now, after a four year “hiatus”, the Trump drama is back and in the language of film, this time it’s personal.
In January 2021, as his supporters stormed the very place where he was inaugurated this week, the chances of Trump returning triumphantly to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue looked remote. With the lowest approval ratings of any departing President, he was done, finished as a political force, facing impeachment and sexual misconduct allegations. Special Counsel Jack Smith who was investigating his role in the Capitol uprising, last week said Trump would have been charged had he not won the election in November.
Trump makes a cameo on Home Alone 2 in 1992.
The comeback kid
But given all that, his comeback wasn’t just remarkable, it was unprecedented and emphatic. Tens of millions of Americans backed him despite his conviction for falsifying business records and unlike 2016, he easily won the popular vote as well as the Electoral College.
Trump Mk 2 clearly appealed to many Americans who felt their lives had got worse and were willing to ignore his behaviour and the Democrats’ warnings about what a Trump Presidency would mean.
And so, the sequel begins, with a convicted felon in the White House and a raft of supporting actors ready to make their mark. The mistake many sequels make is to copy the first one but not this time. The chaos of the first administration with a Cabinet that wasn’t really in his image is being replaced with a host of loyal supporters eager to remake America MAGA style but what might that mean for the rest of the world and in particular Scotland and the UK?
A positive move for business?
The day he won the election, I was speaking at a breakfast hosted by the Scottish North American Business Council. Whereas much of the political talk at the time was depressing, speaking about chaos and turmoil, the mood among business leaders was a bit more positive.
President Biden’s administration was not seen as being dynamic or particularly warm towards the UK and Scotland. Biden leaves office with a lower approval rating than Trump did. The hope for some was that with a clear plan and focus, even if many of his policies are to put it mildly, unappealing, Trump might be someone business can do business with.
He has after all got a personal connection to Scotland and while there have been critics of both John Swinney and Keir Starmer’s good wishes on his election, it would be remiss of them as leaders to ignore the political reality that Trump will lead the free world for the next four years.
Much of Trump’s initial focus is on domestic issues, the outcome of which will understandably appal many people – freeing January 6 prisoners, incredibly harsh immigration policies and rowing back on diversity legislation – but it won’t be long before his icy stare looks beyond his own borders and the economic health of everyone everywhere is still inextricably linked to the economic health of the US.
But what about the tariffs?
Trump threatens tariffs on imports which understandably worries the likes of the Scotch whisky trade especially as his administration was behind the 25% hike which was temporarily ended by Biden. But this time, the threat is more widespread, involves more sectors and will require a great effort to mitigate. He is also promising to roll back much of Biden’s green initiatives and “drill, baby, drill”. For Scotland, that may actually make it more attractive to investors in renewables which may be part of the reason Swinney and his deputy Kate Forbes are taking a more pragmatic approach.
The UK’s influence on him, however, is unlikely to be strong. Labour isn’t a natural bedfellow for MAGA Republicans. The UK is also about to lose a respected US ambassador in Dame Karen Pierce, who had the ear of Trump, for someone who has been a fierce critic. Lord Mandelson wasn’t known as the Prince of Darkness without good reason and will be keen to ingratiate himself with the new administration but many of Trump’s team will be equally keen to make his presence in Washington uncomfortable.
While there may be growing discomfort at the direction the US takes under him, the key to understanding what a Trump US will be like is to understand what drives him. He sees himself as a dealmaker, someone who knows how to get what he wants even if it causes problems.
But he can also give away something if he thinks it’s worth the prize. Kate Forbes said recently, “My argument would be you can disagree with the leader while still engaging with that nation’s economy, and I’m afraid that you also have to work through that leader”.
There is also a huge amount of US investment waiting to be unleashed – his £400m AI investment announced yesterday for example – and Scotland and the UK for that matter will want some of that.
For his many critics, the one bright spot will be that he can only do four more years of “damage” as Presidents can’t serve three terms. Trump himself has hinted that might be something he’ll challenge but he’ll be 82 when his term ends and if many sequels don’t go well, it’s even rarer for a threequel to succeed. Just look at the almighty mess that was Godfather 3 if you don’t believe me.
*The only other sequel to win was Lord of the Rings: Return of the King which for many Maga fans may be seen as a more appropriate follow up title for Trump’s return.
