The strongman. Once the stuff of legend (think more Julius Caesar than Eddie Hall) and now, back in fashion, stomping through the corridors of power with swagger and a complete disregard for the established rules-based order. And leading the charge, a man you might just have heard of, Donald John Trump, who’s once again shaking up the geopolitical game board. This time with, among many other things, a tariff tantrum that could spell trouble or, maybe, opportunity for the UK.
Last weekend, the President dropped another bombshell on the world economy as he began his second term in office, threatening fresh tariffs on European Union goods while throwing a slightly less pouty glance at Britain. In typical style, his reasoning wasn’t exactly what you would call, rooted in deep economic analysis. Instead, he delivered his verdict with a mixture of bluster and personal sentiment. The EU? Guilty of economic “atrocities.” The UK? Well, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been “very nice,” so maybe Britain will get a pass.
Are we well and truly in the age of global trade policy dictated less by institutional frameworks and more by the personal whims of strongmen who see international relations as a game of poker played with entire economies as chips? And for Britain, a country still feeling the aftershocks of Brexit and incredibly sluggish growth, this latest development is a high-stakes gamble with no easy way out.
Trump’s America first 2.0 – bullying and bargaining
For those who thought Trump might mellow in his second term, think again. He’s doubling down on his America First ethos, ready to wield tariffs like a red, white and blue, sledgehammer. Accusing the EU of unfair trade practices, he’s threatening new tariffs, sending European leaders scrambling. And yet, Britain finds itself in an oddly ambiguous position of neither fully inside the EU nor clearly outside Trump’s line of fire.
On one hand, if Trump follows through with punishing the EU but spares Britain, it could create economic opportunities. UK manufacturers, farmers, and exporters might suddenly find themselves with a trade advantage over their European counterparts, able to sell into the lucrative US market without the extra cost burden of tariffs. A Brexit dividend at last?
Let’s not break out the champers (Kent grown of course) just yet, because there’s a catch. While the UK’s balance of trade with the US may offer it some protection from the first wave of tariffs, Britain’s economic vulnerability lies in flashpoints that could provoke further tensions with the US. Defence spending, growing ties with China and given his most recent statements about Gaza, support for a two-state solution in Israel-Palestine, are all issues that could see the UK drawn into Trump’s crosshairs. And then, there’s the delicate nature of certain sectors, agriculture, for instance, which could be used as a bargaining chip in future trade negotiations. So, even if Britain dodges the first round of tariff pain, there’s no guarantee that the next salvo will miss.
Britain caught in the crossfire
As we know all too well, Trump’s moods are as changeable as service levels on the Central Line, and if he wakes up one morning and decides Keir Starmer isn’t “nice” after all, we could be slapped with the same high tariffs as the EU. That would mean increased costs for British exporters, a further squeeze on businesses already navigating the treacherous economic landscape. That would be one hell of an economic headache for Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
This also plays the other way though. If Britain is seen as getting preferential treatment from Washington, the EU won’t be thrilled at all. Starmer, who’s been carefully trying to repair ties with Europe, could find himself accused of playing both sides. Cosying up to Trump while trying to re-enter Europe’s good books. And in the cutthroat world of global politics, that’s a dangerous game to play.
The problem with a chain reaction
The stakes are even higher when you consider the potential fallout from a broader global trade war. Should the US’s tariff threats spark retaliatory measures from countries like Canada, Mexico, or the EU, the ripple effects could disrupt global supply chains and lead to inflationary pressures. UK firms, particularly those that depend on third-country supply chains, would be vulnerable to second and third-order consequences of such a trade conflict. For the UK, the risk is not necessarily in direct tariffs but in the wider economic fallout, which could have severe implications for its precarious economy.
Welcome to the strongmen era
This whole situation is a textbook example of why the age of the strongman is such a rollercoaster ride and proving attractive to voters in many countries. Traditional diplomacy-structured, rule-based, and predictable approaches have given way to a world where policy is dictated by personal grudges, gut feelings, and Twitter (X) rants. Trump isn’t alone in this; from Putin to Erdoğan to Modi to Xi, we’re seeing a new breed of leaders who view international relations as a test of personal dominance rather than cooperation.
For Britain, this means navigating a world where alliances are more fragile than ever. Gone are the days when nations could rely on institutions like the World Trade Organisation to smooth out trade disputes. Now, it’s all about who’s in favour and who’s out. And that makes for an uncertain and often dangerous playing field.
The Starmer balancing act
Starmer is facing one of the trickiest geopolitical balancing acts of any recent UK leader. His growth agenda depends on keeping Britain economically competitive, repairing relations with Europe, and ensuring the country doesn’t get steamrolled by Trump’s America First agenda. All this while dealing with domestic political pressures and Labour internal politics.
His best course of action? Diplomacy with a dash of flattery. Think Rufus Sewell with a hint of Hugh Grant. If Trump wants to hear how great he is, Starmer may have to play along for now maybe with the help of the oleaginous approach of the new UK ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson, without looking like he’s grovelling or a sycophant. At the same time, he needs to reassure the EU that Britain isn’t abandoning its European neighbours for a short-term gain with Washington. It’s a delicate move, and one misstep could have serious consequences.
To hedge against some of the potential fallout, Starmer might also consider more pragmatic strategies like negotiating sector-specific deals, akin to those the EU and China struck with the US during Trump’s first term. This could help soften the blow of tariffs on sensitive sectors and give Britain some breathing room in these high-stake negotiations.
